Another “three years and we’ll see” deal. Brown deal with Philadelphia carries dead-cap hits in the first three years of $40 million, $34 million, and $26 million. That contract, as Andrew Brandt would put it, is a “three years and we’ll see” contract. Having Murray struggle would seriously impact the Arizona Cardinals’ ability to maneuver if they wanted to move on. The dead-cap hits for Kyler Murray’s new contract in the first three years are $110 million, $97.5 million, and $81 million. Getting the QB position right from a contractual standpoint is important. So, until it does, tight ends will continue to be important pieces that a team can get under contract for less money from a market standpoint relative to other positions.
The tight end market might be the next to explode after the receiver market did so in 2021, but it hasn’t happened yet. Compare that to the sixth-highest-paid players by AAV at other positions:Įight of the 11 position groups outlined have their sixth-highest-paid player making more than Dawson Knox in AAV. The new Knox contract places the Buffalo Bills in sixth place at $13.4 million AAV. The current top tight end contract in terms of average annual value (AAV) belongs to George Kittle at $15 million. The tight end position is so monetarily undervalued relative to other positions that the monetary risk associated with signing a young player like Knox and having them plateau or regress is minimal. When I look at the Dawson Knox contract through that lens, I struggle to come up with a compelling and passionate argument against it. Essentially, what is the likelihood of a good or a bad outcome, and how reasonably good or bad could it get? As such, when evaluating a contract at the time of its signing, I’m looking at the probability of a positive ROI versus the probability of a negative ROI and the ranges of possible outcomes within both the positive and negative ROI spaces. When someone says an NFL contract was (in hindsight) a “bad” contract, they typically mean that the return on investment (ROI) was negative. And for the first time in a LONG time, the conversation about a tight end involves the Buffalo Bills. With the Buffalo Bills signing tight end Dawson Knox to a (at face value) four-year, $53.6 million extension that puts him under team control through 2026, the matter of value (and specifically, the value at the tight end position) has come up again in the NFL. Former Green Bay Packers executive Andrew Brandt has a history of summing up NFL player contracts by saying “it’s actually X years and then ‘we’ll see.’” How many years comes before the “we’ll see” is usually a result of the dead-cap hits that would be incurred by a team if they moved on from the contracted player.
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